Failing Economies

There has been a remarkable proliferation of euphemistic, metaphoric and deceptive descriptions of economic events in the 21st century , peaking in 2011 as global economic crises proliferated. Even the Economist Intelligence Unit, usually a reliable source of data and analysis, used euphemisms such a "soft patch" in economic recovery to describe an impending global disaster.  In the US, when Ben Bernanke sat at his computer and  typed  800 billion US dollars into current government accounts, his action was described as "Quantitative Easing." In this century of economies as numbers in computer databases, printing money is old fashion. With the proper endorsements from  high-ranking government officials, you just type in numbers and all is well. Not that quantitative easing is such a bad idea -- should be available to all hard-working citizens with increasing debt burdens.

Not to be outdone by US extravaganzas, the countries of the European Union began to fail as individual countries such as Ireland, England, Italy and Greece accumulated increased debt burdens with threatened defaults on paying both the interest and principal owed.  By mid 2011, global economic recovery appeared to be a wish, a fantasy, a delusion more that a realizable goal.  Krugman wrote: "These are interesting times — and I mean that in the worst way. Right now we’re looking at not one but two looming crises, either of which could produce a global disaster. We can only hope that the politicians huddled in Washington and Brussels succeed in averting these threats. Even if we manage to avoid immediate catastrophe, the deals being struck on both sides of the Atlantic are almost guaranteed to make the broader economic slump worse. In fact, policy makers seem determined to perpetuate what I’ve taken to calling the Lesser Depression, the prolonged era of high unemployment that began with the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and continues to this day, more than two years after the recession supposedly ended. "

I admit that I admire Krugman's social and political analysis more than his economic theory. He favors governments spending their way out of recession to avoid stagnation or worse, depression.  He confronts opposing economic strategies that demand fiscal restraint, debt reduction, increased taxation, and reduction in the size of government. To some extend my simplistic understanding of human nature restores reality but not optimism about the prospects for economic recovery.

Just to review the main dynamics at work:

1. Humans do best living and working in small groups. Their cognitive limitations become obvious when they attempt to manage large groups, corporations and countries.

2. Large systems will reliably reach an avalanche state and tend to fail suddenly and dramatically.

3. Economies are complex, somewhat chaotic systems that no-one understands well enough to manage from the top down.

4. No-one can know what will happen next.

5. Burning cheap fossils fuels was essential to wealth generation and environmental destruction in the 20th century.

6. Cheap fossil fuels are becoming scarce. The environmental degradation they helped cause will become more threatening and more expensive.

7. Environmental degradation with extreme weather events, declining resources and increasing populations will not allow a return to the easy affluence enjoyed by a few in the 20th century. Reduced growth, reduced consumption, reduced expectations will be good for everyone.

8. Government leaders do not have the knowledge, skills, power or political will to rescue us from the impending crises they help to create.

The 2011 civilian revolts in Northern African and the Middle East are not signs of progress towards civil societies, new affluence and justice for all. They are recurrences of inevitable social chaos that arise from increasing populations and decreasing resources to sustain those populations.  There are many mechanisms that cause inequitable distribution of resources. Large numbers of educated, unemployed, frustrated young men in many countries  are protesters, rioters, potential revolutionaries waiting to be inspired to take action against oppression.

In the worst failed states, wealthy, armed dictators face expanding  numbers of poor and defenseless citizens, who suffer from the overwhelming adverse forces of nature. Both human and natural forces create death and destruction that has no obvious solution.  In Somalia, Ethopia, and Kenya today a prolonged drought is produced a famine crisis with 11 million humans at risk. Somalia has been a failed state for decades. No input of emergency food aid will solve such a profoundly systemic crisis. The role of climate change as an overwhelming force that threatens the survival of entire countries is generally ignored by economic theories.

Events so far in the 21st century point away from all idealist visions toward the harsh realities of human conflicts and suffering that have prevailed as long as humans have walked the earth.

Persona Digital Books

Human Nature & Group Dynamics is a 21st century description of anthropology,  sociology and psychology - disciplines that need to be integrated as they are in this book. The topics are essential to understanding human nature, its origins and its problems.  You could treat each topic as module of a larger system that develops emergent properties as the modules interact. Each reader discovers the features of human nature in himself or herself and then discovers similar features in others. After you understand more about the dynamics of close relationships, you can look at  larger groups. You can continue by applying your insights into human dynamics to governments, countries and international affairs. Other Persona Digital books  describe the same dynamics but emphasize different vantage points and concerns.

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	Human Nature & Group Dynamics
	The Good Person
	Pieces of the Puzzle
	The Sound of Music
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	I and Thou
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Human Nature & Group Dynamics is one volume in the  Psychology & Philosophy series, developed by Persona Digital Books. We encourage readers to quote and paraphrase topics from Group Dynamics published online and expect proper citations to accompany all derivative writings. The author is Stephen Gislason and the publisher is Persona Digital Books. The most recent date of publication is 2011 rev 4/10/2011. The URL to the book description is http://www.personadigital.net/Persona/groupdynamics/